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Trump’s Standing in South ֱ Down Across the Board

Trump campaigning

The Spring 2023 Poll, conducted between March 18-27, 2023, is a survey of the South ֱ electorate by The South ֱ Polling Project – a non-partisan research group housed in the School of American and Global Studies at South ֱ State University. In this poll, 747 registered voters answered questions about political figures and policy questions of concern to South ֱ citizens. The margin of error of this survey was +/- 3.6 percent, similar to most statewide polls.

The General Electorate. Since our last poll in September of 2022, there has been some movement in attitudes toward major political figures in the state amongst registered voters.

Our “thermometers” ask respondents to rate each politician on a scale of 0 to 100, where scores above 50 show varying degrees of positive feelings, scores below 50 show negative feelings and a score of 50 is neutral. These are very intuitive, give greater precision than a simple approval rating, and are used widely by political scientists to measure feelings towards individuals and institutions.

Perhaps most striking in these results is the continued drop in popularity of former President Donald Trump. In our first poll in 2020, Trump was amongst the most popular Republican figures in the state. However, since his loss, the Jan. 6 Capitol Hill riot, the document seizures at Mar-a-Lago, and pending legal cases in D.C. and New York have been a drag on his appeal. His thermometer rating is as low as we’ve seen it since we started polling in 2020; currently sitting at 31. It is remarkable that he and President Biden are statistically tied in the state’s general electorate; a sure sign that his popularity - even amongst Republicans - is waning.

The ratings of other political figures have moved ever so slightly since September. President Biden is up about 3 points at 34, Rep. Johnson is down 1 point to 51, Sens. Thune and Rounds are both down 3 at 48 and 46, whilst Gov. Noem has dropped 4 points to 42. All of these changes are either within the margin of error, or just outside of it, suggesting their overall standings with the South ֱ electorate are largely stable. With his score of 51,  Johnson remains the most popular political figure of those we polled.

Bar chart of feelings thermometers showing that Dusty Johnson remains the most popular politician of those we asked about in the state’s general electorate. He is followed by John Thune, Mike Rounds, Kristi Noem, Joe Biden, and Donald Trump.

The Republican Electorate. As any observer of South ֱ politics can attest, most (if not all) of the state’s political action and competition takes place within the Republican party. In the party, we see a rather different story on the rankings of these political figures - the popularity of the major Republican figures is largely the obverse of the electorate at large. Noem is far and away the most popular of the statewide figures amongst Republican respondents with a rather strong rating of 72.

Meanwhile, the congressional delegation of Johnson, Thune and Rounds are statistically indistinguishable from one another at 62, 64, and 61, respectively. Again, the big story here is the low marks for President Trump. In this latest round, he rates at 57. While this is still a positive score and Trump is still favorably viewed by most Republicans, it is a far cry from our earliest polling.

Bar chart showing thermometer ratings of political figures amongst South ֱ Republicans. Kristi Noem is the most popular followed by John Thune, Dusty Johnson, Mike Rounds, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden.

Multi-Year Trends in the Republican Electorate. Now that The South ֱ Polling Project has entered its third year of polling, we can get a good sense of the important trends within the electorate. Overall, it is clear that Governor Noem continues to stand out as the most favored Republican within the party and is enjoying continued success representing that constituency. Though her overall ratings have trended down slightly from 2020, she has shown remarkable stability in her ratings relative to other Republicans.

South ֱ Congressional delegation shows a more typical “surge and decline” trend across the election cycle. Senator Rounds offers a good example of this pattern. In the 2020 election season, as people’s partisan attachments are heightened, he enjoyed a rating of 71. Rounds’ rating dropped to the lower 60s in the “off-season,” only to surge again to 68 later in the run-up to the 2022 election. Since then, it has returned to the lower 60s in our latest poll.

What again is most remarkable about these trends within the Republican Party is the rating of President Trump. In our first four polls, he earned strong ratings from his fellow Republicans and held those marks consistently through the 2020 election, tracking very close to Noem. Since then, he has seen his popularity severely damaged, placing him at the bottom of the pack. The loss of popularity could foretell serious trouble as he launches his bid for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Multi-poll bar chart showing thermometer trends of political figures amongst Republicans over the six polls conducted by The SDSU Poll since October 2020. It shows that virtually all of the politicians tracked have trended downwards to some extent over that time span, with President Trump’s popularity severely hurt since September 2022. Governor Noem’s popularity has been the most consistent over the time series.

Contributors: David Wiltse Ph.D. and Filip Viskupič Ph.D.