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By David Wiltse, Ph.D., and Filip Viskupič, Ph.D.

The Spring 2024 Poll, conducted from April 18 to April 29, 2024, is a survey of the South ��ֱ���� electorate conducted by The South ��ֱ���� Polling Project — a non-partisan research group housed in the School of American and Global Studies at South ��ֱ���� State University. In this poll, 727 registered voters answered questions about political figures and policy questions of concern to South ��ֱ���� residents. As with all polls of the electorate conducted by The SDSU Polling Project, respondents were randomly sampled from the South ��ֱ���� Voter File of all registered voters in the state and weighted the data on known population parameters to closely match the characteristics of the state’s population. The margin of error of this survey was +/- 3.6%, similar to most statewide polls.

Several ballot measures are likely to appear in the fall. In our spring poll, we asked about four of these: removing sales tax on groceries, recreational marijuana, adopting the top-two primaries, and gender-neutral language in the state’s constitution. In this press release, we will look at the first three of these. In the next release, we will consider the adoption of gender-neutral language in the constitution.

Removal of sales tax on groceries

In the last South ��ֱ���� legislative session, there was division — — in the Legislature to place a measure on the fall ballot to remove the state sales tax on groceries. This was also a top priority of Gov. Kristi Noem. However, advocates are close to securing an initiated measure through the petitioning process. Our poll finds that this enjoys broad support in the electorate, with 62% in favor, 19% against and 19% unsure. This closely matches the findings of a poll from December 2023.

When the results are broken down between parties, Democrats are generally more supportive of the measure with 76% stating support, whilst 54% of Republicans support eliminating these taxes.

Legalization of marijuana

For the third time in six years, South ��ֱ����ns will likely be voting on the legalization of recreational marijuana in the fall election. In 2020, a measure for legalization narrowly passed, only to be invalidated through by the South ��ֱ���� Supreme Court. In the 2022 general election, a second attempt on a ballot measure narrowly lost. Should the petition be approved, the vote is likely to be very close. Our polling suggests that little has changed in the popularity of such a measure. The division is about as close as possible with 44.5% of our sample supporting the measure, 45.5% opposed and 10% unsure. Unsurprisingly, the issue is sharply polarized on partisan identification, though the parties are not perfectly obverse to one another. The ultimate fate of the measure will likely rest on the composition of the 2024 electorate. Should there be as large of a turnout in 2024 as we saw in the 2020 election, the measure has a good chance of approval.

Open ‘top-two’ primaries

This is the first time that our poll has asked a question about this policy question. have been a favorite of anti-party political reformers in the last couple of decades. The basic premise of this nomination process is to codify nominating procedures, thus taking that power from the political parties. To do this, our primaries — which are currently structured and controlled by each party — will be replaced with a single contest in which any number of candidates irrespective of party will appear on the ballot for any given race. The two candidates (or four in state house races) with the greatest number of votes will then appear on the general election ballot, even if both (or all) are of the same party. A similar measure failed in 2016 by a 55-45 vote.

One thing that is certain from our polling is that South ��ֱ����ns generally do not understand what this ballot measure entails. The intricacies of electoral systems are not something that garners much thought by most in the electorate. Nearly 49% of registered voters said they were unsure on this question, 31% said they were in favor, and 20% were opposed. As with many ballot initiatives across the country, come election time most voters who are unsure default to the status quo by casting a “no” vote. Unless a considerable amount of public attention is brought to this matter and people’s minds change, we suspect that the measure will once again fail.

It is important though to highlight a partisan difference on this question. Those Republicans who voiced a preference were generally opposed to the measure by a 27-16 margin; this echoes the cues that . However, a 57% majority of Republicans were “unsure.” The story for Democrats is quite different. About 46.6% of Democrats showed support for the measure, while only 10.5% said they’d vote against it. The balance of just under 43% were unsure. Despite the of this measure, it has been championed largely by liberals in the state — cues that attentive Democrats are taking as they form their opinion. Given the unified opposition that Republican office holders are showing, this measure will face an uphill battle come November.